Cohort Analysis Estimation of the Dropout Phenomenon

This project was implemented as part of the School Attendance Campaign, initiated by UNICEF Romania in May 2010. The research goal was to identify potential distortions/deficiencies in the way academic loss (dropout, grade repetition) data are recorded and reported at the level of the researched educational establishments, to assess current procedures and regulations used to record such cases and to come up with proposals for improvement. The main objectives targeted during the research were the following: • To estimate the actual annual dropout rate and the cohort dropout rate at primary and lower secondary levels for the period of 2006-2009. • To estimate hidden dropout rate and to scale up the facts found during the analysis to the network of the schools included in the 2010/2011 EPA project. • To identify the causes of potential differences detected between annual dropout rates reported by schools and those identified during the research. The research has identified several areas of intervention that could help to cut back the distortions related to the way dropout is documented. For each of these directions, the following are needed: • To harmonise the dropout definition used by different institutions • To clarify some operational aspects regarding dropout and unschooling definitions within the context of the development of secondary legislation to the Education Act No 1/2011; • To systematize the main categories of dropout causes in current methodologies; • To collect information allowing to break down the data • To run a systematic analysis of the truancy phenomenon • To introduce in educational statistics a statistical indicator on dropout risk